Tom O'Neil's Inside Track

OMG, I can’t believe I’m predicting ‘A Star Is Born’ will win the Best Picture Oscar!

I’m shocked — and not a little bit embarrassed — to admit that I’m (currently at least) predictingA Star Is Born” will win Best Picture at the Oscars. Oh, yeah, even more: Lady Gaga will bag Best Actress. I’ve got Bradley Cooper in second place for Best Actor (behind Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which nobody’s seen yet) and, frankly, I might rank him higher if it didn’t look suspicious – like I’m too much of a Gaga-style, bubble gum-snapping fan of the film that I’ve now seen it at the Toronto Film Festival. As a professional Oscar pundit, I must openly scold myself: Have I gone truly, well, gaga?

As all respectable Oscar pundits know: Academy voters have not been kind to past versions of “A Star Is Born,” even when they were masterpieces like that Judy Garland gem (1954) and Janet GaynorFrederic March chestnut (1937). Maybe that was just due to the old hex against movies about Hollywood never winning Best Picture at Tinsel Town’s top awards show, but then “The Artist” (2011) finally broke that curse, didn’t it?

So why should we be skeptical about this new redo? It’s a knockout visually, musically and dramatically. It delivers. Not only to Gaga fans, but to cynics like me and even to snooty film critics who normally pride themselves on preferring pretentious, inaccessible indies in Farsi or French. Oscar voters have become unapologetic snobs in recent years, eschewing blockbusters that used to triumph like “Titanic,” “Gladiator” and “Ben-Hur.” And musicals, too – just ask “La La Land.” Ouch.

Tom O'Neil's Inside Track
Editor and President Tom O'Neil founded Gold Derby in 2000.
Tom's Latest Updated Predictions
Oscars Nominations 2019
( Best Picture )
Bet Points: 100
  • 1
    A Star Is Born
    A Star Is Born
    10/1
  • 2
    Green Book
    Green Book
    42/1
  • 3
    Roma
    Roma
    10/1
  • 4
    The Favourite
    The Favourite
    23/2
  • 5
    Black Panther
    Black Panther
    20/1
  • 6
    First Man
    First Man
    15/2
  • 7
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    100/1
  • 8
    Vice
    Vice
    18/1
  • 9
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    11/1
  • 10
    BlacKKKlansman
    BlacKkKlansman
    7/1
  • Updated on: 15 Oct 18, 22:56 pm PT